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  • [Idea note] - ACAST: North American Inflection Point Drives Profitability Turnaround

[Idea note] - ACAST: North American Inflection Point Drives Profitability Turnaround

Protean believes Acast is experiencing a transformational shift in its North American operations, with...

Author

Kristoffer Lindström
June 08, 2025

Idea note

This is an Idea note; It’s a collection of early signals – companies mentioned in fund letters, blogs, or by sharp investors online. Not a full pitch, just a starting point for ideas that might be worth a more in-depth look.

Acast: North American Inflection Point Drives Profitability Turnaround

Idea source: Protean

Acast AB (ACAST:STO) - Swedish podcast technology platform providing hosting, distribution, and advertising solutions. Listed on Nasdaq Stockholm with SEK 2.9bn market cap

Ticker: ACAST | Timeframe: 12-18 months | 🚅 Financial momentum | Lind ownership: No

Protean believes Acast is experiencing a transformational shift in its North American operations, with Q1 growth of 65% demonstrating the company’s ability to capture market share in the world’s largest podcast advertising market. The combination of improved monetization efficiency (31% increase in revenue per listen), approaching profitability (adjusted EBITDA margin improved from -4% to -1%), and new conservative financial targets creates a compelling risk-reward setup. Key catalysts include achieving full-year 2025 profitability, continued North American expansion, and potential re-rating as investors recognize the sustainable transformation of the business model. Primary risks include macroeconomic headwinds affecting advertising spend and execution challenges in scaling profitably, but a strong cash position (SEK 652m) provides downside protection.

 📝 Our view: Acast profitability inflection and growth momentum warrant a deeper look. The key is to understand long-term profit levels to create a reasonable assumption of future valuation.

The current multiple valuation (EV/S) appears neither to be at a high nor a low point, despite growth acceleration. This might create an interesting setup. However, for us, a profit or cash flow valuation is what we use, so to gauge the price in relation to value, more in-depth research would be necessary.

Overview

Acast operates as a leading podcast technology platform serving over 140,000 shows and generating more than 1 billion quarterly listens across 3,300+ advertisers. The company’s business model centers on monetizing podcast content through programmatic advertising, with particular strength in the rapidly growing North American market where podcast advertising spend continues to outpace traditional media.

  • North American momentum: 65% Q1 growth with positive contribution profit versus losses in prior year, indicating successful market penetration.

  • Operational leverage: 31% increase in Average Revenue Per Listen (ARPL) to…

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