Better Collective (BETCO): Continued Traffic Weakness for Q2

We have compiled, as part of our ongoing research on Better Collective (BETCO), a comprehensive Excel model of all the websites that BETCO owns, tracking their traffic estimates using data from Ubersuggest¹.

Traffic estimates are just that, only an estimate. However, they are based on keyword ranking and estimated keyword volumes. So, in a way, the precise number is never entirely accurate, but it’s usually a good indicator of the trend.

We plan to update the tracker on a monthly basis and publish it.

Do you want access to the full model with all websites, regions, and countries? Here is an example for North America:

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Our traffic estimates are updated monthly. In the chart above, we summarized them and mapped them to the quarterly revenue for the publishing segment.

It appears that there is still weakness in both North America and Latin America. Both regions are obviously essential for revenue generation for BETCO. North America saw an estimated decline of 2%, while Latin America experienced a 9% decline. Europe saw the largest increase, which stood at 7%.

As a whole, the global traffic estimate is up 5.3% year-over-year and down 1.2% quarter-over-quarter. However, one must note that North America is down sharply compared to last year, and the traffic there generates higher revenue per visitor than other regions.

Overall, the estimated traffic numbers indicate that the Publishing revenue is down slightly compared to Q1. How does that align with market consensus?

The average consensus estimate for Q2 stands at a total sales of €85m, down 14% compared to last year but up 3% compared to Q1. BETCO also has a significant paid media revenue stream, which is not affected by SEO ranking, so it’s very difficult to predict how it will develop. However, if we assume that Paid will have a similar year-over-year (y/y) development as we saw in Q1 (-14% growth), then Paid will generate around $24 million in Revenue for Q2.

As both North America and Latin America are showing declines, we would expect publishing revenue to be down compared to the first quarter. If we assume that revenue declines by around 5%, then the total estimate for Q2 would be approximately €80m, which is 6% below consensus.

By the looks of it, publishing revenue is likely to be a bit lower in Q2 than Q1, while consensus expects a 3% increase. 

The guessing game of quarter results is all good and fun, but it is rarely where Alpha lies. What is more important, however, is the long-term trend. We view NDCs as a great leading indicator for future revenue growth. As the NDCs sent decrease, the future revenue share income will dry up, and this will also obviously affect direct CPA income.

What we have found very interesting is the correlation between our traffic estimate and the development in sent NDCs. Rising traffic most often leads to increases in NDCs, while a decline also indicates decreases in NDCs.

NDC development, then, is a leading indicator of Publishing revenue, as seen below. When BETCO sends an NDC to a partner, they either receive a CPA directly or a revenue share over the coming months (most often 12 months, but sometimes lifetime).

A decrease in NDCs delivered will lead to a lower long-term revenue share and a direct decrease in CPA.

The traffic estimates are no crystal ball and are flawed in many ways; however, if we see a sharp increase after something like a core update, we would expect the revenues to follow. Currently, the trend is pointing down.

Despite core updates having huge impacts on website traffic for SEO reliant businesses like betting/casino affiliation, we see little written about from analysis or market participants

June 2025 update:

We have checked the impact based on Ahrefs traffic estimates on some of BETCO's larger sites, and by the looks of it, it’s rather mixed but tilting to the negative side. Here comes a rapid-fire chart bonanza from some of BETCOs more important sites:

Vegasinsider

Actionnetwork

Bettingexpert

Yardbarker

Dailyfaceoff

Bolavip

RedGol

Aceodds

Betarades

Goal.pl

Buyback and share price

Despite the traffic trends and the recent core update that seemed like it did not help, the share of BETCO has rebounded sharply.

However, we believe that the buyback program is a significant contributor to the strength of the share price. The buybacks have accounted for around 16% of total volumes since they began on May 22nd. As usual, the volumes during summer dry up, so the buyback program accounts for a substantial part of the total volumes traded. The buyback program will begin on August 26, six days after BETCO presents its Q2 results.

All traffic data points downward; however, this is only a third-party estimate, so certainty is limited.

However, due to headwinds in Brazil, a slowdown in the USA, and the partner publishing issue mentioned in previous reports, we view the risks as significant. Considering the share price has mostly risen from the low summer liquidity, along with a buyback schedule, we are even more cautious.

BETCO is currently trading at a NTM EBIT multiple of 14.8x, above its 3-year median of 14.0x. This is based on NTM numbers that we believe are optimistic, as analysts do not appear to have fully considered traffic trends and the impact of the latest Google core update. All things combined, we find the current valuation to be too rich and offers little to no margin of safety.

Source: 1: https://neilpatel.com/ubersuggest/