We are writing a deep dive on Smart Eye and will release it soon; this is a free sneak peek at a small section in the deep dive. We added Smart Eye to the portfolio yesterday, as we expected strong numbers from Seeing Machines that confirmed volume ramp-up.

Furthermore, we are up ≈6% on the position currently; get Premium to not miss out.

Today, Seeing Machines (SEE) released its KPI figures for Q4 FY26. These numbers are highly important and are the best way to track the DMS car production ramp-up. Smart Eye's quite poor financial disclosures dwarf the transparency in Seeing Machines’ reporting. With that said, the DMS mandate from the July GSR2 for EU-registered cars lies at the core of the case in Smart Eye (SEYE).

The volume take-off started before the July GSR2 deadline, clearly seen in Seeing Machines’ Q3 FY2026 KPIs; quarterly automotive production volumes printed 1,284,557 units, up 122% QoQ and roughly 259% YoY, landing at the upper end of management's prior guidance range combined with a significant increase in royalties. The biggest takeaway from this data is confirmation of the vertical take-off of car volumes with DMS. The 259% growth in delivered cars during the period aligns well with Smart Eyes' stated +200% license growth from their Q1’26 report.

The Q4 numbers were even stronger, released on Aug 11, showing Seeing Machines Q4 units of 2,112,855, up 64% QoQ and 333% YoY, far exceeding management's prior guidance range from the H1’FY26 presentation. The hard part to know going forward is whether the guidance ranges are no longer valid, or if there has been a quick surge in volumes that will stay more flat. By the looks of it, Seeing Machines already sees quarterly volume levels they expected to be at the end of the year/start of 2027.

As the volumes have been at the upper end of the ranges or exceeding them, we will assume that will continue. Using the upper end of the ranges, Seeing Machines’ car volume projections show 282% growth in 2026. With an estimated 7.40 million cars to be delivered during the year, up from 1.93 million during 2025. They estimate the total OEM EU volume for 2026 at 12.5 million; one should also remember that there are DMS volumes outside the EU. However, Seeing Machines' estimates are higher than ACEA's that we previously looked at. If we assume Seeing Machines holds 55% of the market, 5% to others, and then apply Smart Eye’s assumption of a 40% market share, then the calculation comes down to a production volume of approx. 5.7 million cars for Smart Eye. This is the single best data point we have on the likely level of car deliveries for Smart Eye in 2026.

As explained earlier, we will release a deep dive on Smart Eye in the coming days. We will be digging into the behavioral research business, full financial projections, risks, and a valuation discussion. Stay tuned.

Disclaimer

Not investment advice, for informational purposes only. The company discussed, Smart Eye, is a holding in our public portfolio.

Lind Research