LIND RESEARCH
Comment | Analyst: Kristoffer Lindström
Lula's Win Shuts the Fast Lane Back to Brazil
Brazilian voters closed Better Collective's quickest way back into Brazil on Sunday. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8% to 48.2%, and the betting industry, which had already opened talks with Flávio's team about rewriting the ban, lost its plan A. BETCO is down close to 14% today.
Partial at best: Even Flávio would have kept online casino banned. The best case was always a partial return.
Licenses gone: The 85 operator licenses lapsed on October 25. Reopening now needs the Supreme Court or Congress, then new licenses from the government that closed the market.
Valuation: At about SEK 65, BETCO trades at 11x 2027E EV/EBIT excluding Brazil, twice the peer median. We keep Brazil at zero and our SEK 50-60 range.
Info | Value |
|---|---|
Company: Better Collective | Price (SEK): ~65 |
Ticker: BETCO | Mcap (EURm): 338 |
FYE: DEC | EV (EURm): 630 |
Disclaimer
Not investment advice; for informational purposes only. The company discussed, Better Collective, is not a holding in our public portfolio.
What happened
Flávio led the first round 47.0% to 45.2%, and Datafolha, Quaest and CNT/MDA all had him narrowly ahead in mid-October. BETCO priced that in, recovering about 7% after its 33% fall on September 28. Today it gave all of it back and is down about 39% since our September comment.
Why the road back narrowed
Flávio promised to ban online casino and keep sports betting. Lula said on October 22 that the ban is irreversible. The 85 licenses, which cost operators BRL 30m each, lapsed on Sunday, and Lula's Finance Ministry would have to issue any new ones.
What could still reopen it
Two routes remain…
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