Coffee Stain used its first Big Break Showcase on September 29 to announce Satisfactory's first paid expansion, date an October to December slate across Goat Simulator 3, Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor, Lightyear Frontier and Wielders of the Essence, and set a paid Deep Rock Galactic DLC for summer 2027. Below we map every announcement that drives revenue and profit, size the Satisfactory expansion and set it against consensus.

Disclaimer

Not investment advice; for informational purposes only. The company discussed, Coffee Stain, is a holding in our public portfolio.

Coffee Stain Studios closed the show with a teaser for Core Values, Satisfactory's first paid expansion. It takes players underground into a new region with new resources, creatures, factory buildings, and a new storyline, and it is coming to PC, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series. The Steam page is now live with price and release date “to be announced”; the trailer says only “later”. The team said free updates will continue alongside it.

This is the most important announcement for the P&L. It is the first time Satisfactory earns money from players who already own it, and it is a full expansion rather than a DLC. The company last disclosed 5.5m copies sold in January 2024; industry trackers put today's figure at 7.5-9m copies, and lifetime net sales exceed SEK 1.1bn.

The sales figure supports the tracker range: SEK 1.1bn over 7.5-9m copies is SEK 120-150 per copy, or USD 12-15 net against a USD 30-40 list price, which fits early-access pricing, regional prices, discounts, and platform fees. Genre benchmarks support pricing Core Values well above a typical DLC. Factorio: Space Age launched at USD 35, the same price as its base game, and sold more than 400,000 copies in about four days; RimWorld's expansions sell at USD 20-25 against a USD 35 base. We assume USD 25-30 and 65% net realisation after platform fees and sales taxes.

We assume a 20% first-year attach rate. A 2026 survey of Steam games put expansion attach at 14%, and the largest AAA expansions reach 22-30% over their lifetime, but Core Values is not a routine expansion: the community has asked for exactly this kind of content in unusual numbers. On 7.5-9m copies that is 1.5-1.8m units and SEK 240-350m in first-year net sales at USD/SEK 9.96, with a midpoint near SEK 295m. Each 5-percentage-point move in attach moves the midpoint by about SEK 75m.

The game is fully owned, so there is no royalty. At the group's roughly 90% gross margin, the midpoint adds about SEK 265m of gross profit (SEK 220-315m across the range), against LTM Cash EBIT of SEK 391m. Reported EBIT will carry amortisation of the capitalised development once it ships. All of it lands in PC/Console.

Timing is the open question. With no window given, we keep Core Values out of FY26/27 estimates. Q4 FY26/27 (January to March) is the earliest realistic contribution, and FY27/28 is the safer base case.

Consensus has FY26/27E net sales at SEK 1,104m and FY27/28E at SEK 1,102m, flat, with adjusted EBIT rising from SEK 327m to SEK 400m only because margins widen from 29.6% to 36.3%. The quarters drift down into FY27/28: Q1 FY27/28E net sales of SEK 228m are 10% below the same quarter a year earlier. There is no large…