LIND RESEARCH
Comment | Analyst: Kristoffer Lindström
OpenAI’s Identity Crisis, Effects on the AI Buildout
OpenAI has rebuilt ChatGPT on Mac, merging Codex with the legacy app, and users have been raging: unsynced chats, hard-to-understand UX.
We believe the reason is an identity crisis from an accidental consumer product from a B2B company:
They do not understand how to monetize such a massive user base. OpenAI has not shown real success implementing ads; honestly, the only way to serve 1 billion users effectively.
They are likely scared of the rise of Claude as the AI work app; this goes to the core of the company's DNA: an AI lab, not truly a consumer product.
If the consumer side falters, the long-term revenue trajectory is significantly affected, given compute commitments reported at $1.0-1.4 trillion this decade.
A core risk sits at Oracle, $638bn in backlog with half to OpenAI, while Apple's Siri and Google stand ready to take back the question-answering habit.
OpenAI has rebuilt its ChatGPT experience on Mac, more or less merging Codex and the ChatGPT legacy app. Users have been raging: not-synced chats, a hard-to-understand UX with missing projects and custom GPTs, chat demoted to a pop-up, a 159MB native app replaced by a 1.5GB Electron build; OpenAI walked parts of it back within 24 hours, but the tell is in the weird update in the first place. OpenAI has an identity crisis.
Here is some Reddit commentary:
r/ChatGPT•4d ago
WTF is the new macOS app update? DO NOT UPDATE until you read this
I (accidentally) updated ChatGPT on my MacBook. DO NOT DO IT!
If you are someone who uses ChatGPT for anything other than coding DO NOT UPDATE.
The new ChatGPT App is just their Codex app. Normal chat functionality is buried and no longer in the main window interface. "Projects" are coding projects, not all the projects I had set up to manage and isolate related chat. In fact, I cannot find/access my projects at all in the app—I'm having to use the website.
Needless to say I am furious. I get the coding side of generative AI is where the money is, but if they don't fix this soon I'll be switching to something else that actually values the non-coding users.
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GloomyPop5387
Yah, don’t understand why they didn’t have codex/work/chat. How hard would that be?
The phone app has work/chat toggles, why would the desktop app be different?
Using the browser sucks. It doesn’t handle long context great. The desktop app does.
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Realistic_Cry_8121
I'm on Mac, was excited for the new Work feature and models announced. Downloaded the new version of ChatGPT and holy cow WTF. Thank God I was able to delete and re-install the last version of ChatGPT "Classic" before this boondoggle on Uptodown: https://chatgpt.en.uptodown.com/mac/download/1188366152
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mrrippington
why won't they carry over my projects? are they stupid?
lost weeks of work in needle in a haystack. i can't use the app now.
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The comments continue…
We think OpenAI has somewhat of an identity crisis. ChatGPT was almost an accident, a tech demo that went viral. Ads should have been built out and tested long ago, and not as a side track. OpenAI has not shown real success in implementing ads into ChatGPT, which is honestly the only way to serve 1 billion users effectively. In a similar fashion, Meta wants to be a platform but is actually an entertainment company; OpenAI wants to be a productivity/work company but is actually a consumer app. So this goes to the core of the company's DNA. They want to focus on productivity and code, not be a "new" Google, even though the latter will likely be more valuable in the long term.
They are likely scared and see the rise of Claude as the AI work app. Anthropic reportedly passed OpenAI on annualized revenue this spring and the Ramp data shows a clear trend.
What does this mean long-term? Well, if ChatGPT begins to falter on the consumer side, we think it will significantly affect its long-term revenue trajectory. Claude has handled many of the work-related tasks in their harness with strong lock-in effects. OpenAI has significant compute commitments, reported at $1.0-1.4 trillion this decade, and is a major part of the data center/AI buildout. A core risk at one company is Oracle, with a $638bn backlog, half of which is to OpenAI.
Who could win in this? Well, Apple now seems to have launched a capable Siri, and we have Google with both Gemini and the AI Overview in regular Google search.
If ChatGPT becomes unfamiliar to people, we think they will most likely just revert to what they have used for the past 15 years when they want answers. Gemini's climb has stalled over the last few months, per Similarweb data. If the Mac update is a canary in the coal mine for what is to come for the whole ChatGPT experience (across mobile, web, etc). Then we expect the climb of Gemini to accelerate again.
Lind Research