Five Areas of Focus for Tuesday's Year-End Print

Tomorrow Coffee Stain prints its first ever full year as a standalone listed company. The headline numbers are not the point. The question we walk in with is whether management is treating Coffee Stain as a portfolio of cash-generating IPs that should be tuned for yield, or as a platform that needs to fund the next thing. Q4 is the cleanest stress test we have so far: no Satisfactory launch tailwind, an inherited live-service (Fellowship), the biggest paid-franchise content drop of the year (Deep Rock Galactic Season 6), the long-awaited Teardown multiplayer release, and a Bloxburg revenue line attached to a Roblox stock down 34% since April 30. Consensus is thin, and tomorrow's reaction will be driven by tone on these five debates more than by the precise number. Share price has been strong since the post-listing forced selling stopped, which may pose an expectations risk if numbers come in below consensus.

The print: Consensus has Q4 net sales at SEK 244m (-17% QoQ, +13% YoY vs Q4 24/25's SEK 216m), Adj EBITDA SEK 146m (59.6% margin), and Adj EBIT SEK 74m (30.1% margin). The most interesting feature of the numbers is the YoY uplift: a +13% reported gain into the teeth of a 13-15% FX headwind implies a healthy double-digit organic constant-currency print. The reaction will hinge on (1) whether the launch uplift line lands in line with the DRG Season 6 + Teardown multiplayer setup, and (2) the FX commentary at current USD/SEK 9.20. These are the five areas we will focus most on: