BETCO: Further Deterioration of Traffic

• Traffic decline accelerating: Our tracker shows BETCO’s global website traffic down 28% YoY in July and -6% MoM, with the decline worsening post-Google’s June Core update. Weakness is broad-based, with North America and Brazil standing out as problem areas.

• Mismatch with market expectations: Consensus revenue assumptions do not appear to fully reflect SEO ranking deterioration or volume shifts in key regions (NA & LA). Paid revenues soften the blow but cannot offset the SEO-driven decline.

• Share price disconnected from fundamentals: Despite weak operating trends, BETCO shares are up 30% in the past 3 months. We argue this rise is largely artificial, fueled by aggressive buybacks absorbing 15–20% of daily volume, an unusually high and prolonged intervention.

• Valuation stretched: On consensus NTM estimates, BETCO trades at 14.4x EV/EBIT, above its 3-year median. Adjusting for likely consensus optimism, we estimate the true multiple is closer to 16-19x, too rich given deteriorating fundamentals.

• Conclusion: BETCO’s operational trajectory (traffic/ranking trends) is diverging sharply from market expectations and the current share price. With valuation multiples now above historical averages and growth prospects weaker, we recommend caution.